Scania Group CEO Christian Levin has delivered a stark assessment of the challenges facing Europe’s truck industry, arguing that traditional long-term planning is becoming obsolete in an era of geopolitical shocks, supply chain disruption and intensifying global competition. Speaking during a wide-ranging Q&A session, Levin also outlined his views on Chinese truck manufacturers, autonomous transport and hydrogen technology, warning that Europe risks falling behind unless it adapts faster.
The commercial vehicle sector is entering a period of profound change, according to Scania Group CEO Christian Levin.
Addressing questions on everything from global unrest and supply chain resilience to Chinese competition, autonomous trucks and hydrogen power, Levin painted a picture of an industry being reshaped by forces largely beyond its control.
His central message was clear: flexibility, speed and competitiveness will matter more than long-term forecasts.
Global unrest is making traditional planning “almost hopeless”
Levin argued that the world has fundamentally changed since the Covid-19 pandemic, making traditional business planning increasingly ineffective.
“We’ve moved into a world where planning is almost hopeless,” he said.
While manufacturers still produce five and ten-year plans, Levin suggested the assumptions that underpin them are becoming less reliable.
“For me, all of that is wasted time with the world we live in since the pandemic.”
Instead, he believes businesses must focus on preparing for unexpected shocks rather than trying to predict them.
“The unthinkable is unthinkable. We cannot speculate what the unthinkable is. We just have to say it’s going to be shocks.”
He cited the pandemic, semiconductor shortages, the war in Ukraine and conflict in the Middle East as examples of events that have disrupted global supply chains with little warning.
Building flexibility comes at a cost
Levin revealed how recent tensions in the Middle East exposed vulnerabilities in Scania’s supply chain.
A specialist gearbox oil used across Scania and wider Traton Group vehicles was sourced through Shell from a single production facility in Qatar.
When regional instability threatened production and distribution, Scania faced the prospect of running out of the oil within weeks.
“We get a date: week 23, you will get no more gearbox oil.”
The situation was ultimately resolved, but Levin said it highlighted the need for greater redundancy in supply chains.
“We cannot have even a big stable supplier such as Shell trusting that they can always deliver, because something will happen.”
The answer, he suggested, is multiple suppliers, larger inventories and more flexible contracts. However, all of these measures increase costs and impact profitability.
Levin also described the operational challenges created by the recent conflict involving Iran, which left hundreds of trucks and buses destined for Middle Eastern customers stranded in ports and transit routes.
“Every single customer, you have to call up and say, ‘Hey, we have a war in your region. What do we do with your vehicle?'”
He added that creating resilience now represents a significant but largely invisible cost for manufacturers.
“If you really dig down and see what costs money, I would say it’s a lot to create flexibility.”
Europe must remain competitive
Levin also linked geopolitical instability to wider concerns about Europe’s competitiveness.
He argued that European manufacturers increasingly face competition from countries that use industrial policy and trade as strategic tools.
“If we’re going to be competitive as Europe versus the US or China… unfortunately we have to do the same.”
That discussion is driving renewed interest in “Made in Europe” manufacturing strategies and greater regional self-sufficiency.
Energy independence is becoming another key factor behind the push for electrification.
Levin said European policymakers increasingly view battery-electric transport not only as a sustainability measure but also as a way of reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels.
Chinese manufacturers are a serious threat – and Europe must learn from them
Levin dismissed any notion that European truck manufacturers can afford to be complacent about Chinese competition.
“We should worry about China and we watch them carefully.”
Scania’s investments in China, including manufacturing, purchasing and research and development operations, are designed partly to understand how Chinese manufacturers operate.
Despite this growing challenge, Levin believes Scania still holds significant advantages.
These include strong customer relationships, extensive dealer and workshop networks, advanced digital services and a long-established reputation among drivers.
“We have a fantastic dealer network, fantastic workshop network. We have a setup of services that no one can match today.”
He added that many operators continue to choose Scania despite higher acquisition costs because drivers actively prefer the brand.
“I buy it anyway, because the driver loves it.”
China is teaching the West a new lesson
However, Levin’s strongest comments centred on what Europe can learn from Chinese manufacturers.
Comparing today’s situation with Toyota’s influence on manufacturing during the 1980s and 1990s, he suggested Chinese companies are redefining how quickly industrial products can be developed and brought to market.
“The Chinese will teach us how to industrialise in record time.”
Levin said projects that might traditionally take Western manufacturers three years could potentially be completed in half the time using Scania’s Chinese operations.
A domestic Chinese manufacturer, he suggested, could move even faster.
“The Chinese manufacturer probably would have done it in six months.”
He admitted that many Western companies still fail to understand the speed at which Chinese businesses operate.
“We have to stop thinking of them like Mao Zedong in the Cultural Revolution.”
“They are hyper-developed. They have skilled engineers. They have digital platforms that we can all dream about. And they work really, really hard.”
While Europe remains a difficult market to penetrate, Levin expects a growing number of Chinese battery-electric truck manufacturers to enter the region.
“I know of four companies who are in the homologation process right now for Europe.”
The competitive battle, he said, is only beginning.
Autonomous trucks will arrive – but Europe will be last
Levin believes autonomous trucking remains inevitable, but Europe faces significant barriers compared with China and the United States.
“Automation is the trickiest in the European context.”
Different national regulations, legal frameworks and approval processes are slowing development and deployment.
By contrast, autonomous trucks are already operating commercially on certain routes in the United States, while China benefits from both scale and a more permissive regulatory environment.
“In China, it happens all over the country.”
As a result, Levin expects autonomous transport to arrive first in China, then the US, before eventually reaching Europe.
“I think the way this will develop, it will develop first in China, it will develop then in the US, and it will come last to Europe.”
The business case is becoming stronger
Levin acknowledged that fully autonomous trucks remain expensive due to hardware and software development costs.
However, he believes economics will eventually drive adoption.
“The driver salaries keep rising, and it’s more and more difficult to find skilled drivers.”
Once technology costs fall sufficiently, autonomous trucks operating on high-mileage hub-to-hub routes could become commercially attractive.
He suggested widespread adoption is likely sometime after 2030.
“It’s going to happen.”
However, he cautioned against expecting a rapid transition.
“I think it’s going to take much longer time than what we think to actually get it into the market.”
Hydrogen remains a learning exercise, not a business case
Of all the topics discussed, Levin was perhaps most sceptical about hydrogen-powered trucks.
While acknowledging hydrogen’s appeal as a zero-emission fuel, he questioned whether the economics will ever stack up against battery-electric vehicles.
“If you take that whole chain from a windmill to the kinetic energy on the vehicle, 75% is lost.”
By comparison, he said battery-electric vehicles lose around 25% of energy across the same process.
“The battery electric vehicle with the cable, the same transition, you lose 25% maximum.”
Because energy represents a major operating cost, Levin struggles to see how hydrogen can become commercially competitive.
“It’s highly unlikely that the hydrogen truck will ever be financially viable.”
Scania will continue testing
Despite his reservations, Scania continues to run hydrogen trials with customers in Norway, Switzerland, Denmark, Belgium and the Netherlands.
The objective, Levin said, is to learn rather than to make grand commitments.
“We do it with customers to really learn together with them.”
“We don’t make big announcements. We don’t build big factories.”
Scania’s annual simulations of future European powertrain demand have consistently reduced hydrogen’s expected market share.
“Every year we lose 1%.”
“Now we are below five.”
While Levin sees potential niche applications, particularly in military sectors, he indicated that battery-electric technology remains Scania’s primary focus.
“For us, it’s pretty clear. We do this because we want to learn.”
Industry implications
Levin’s comments provide a rare insight into how one of Europe’s largest truck manufacturers views the decade ahead.
His outlook suggests four key themes will shape the industry:
- Greater investment in supply chain resilience and regional manufacturing.
- Increased competitive pressure from Chinese truck builders.
- Slower-than-expected deployment of autonomous vehicles in Europe.
- Continued dominance of battery-electric technology over hydrogen in mainstream road transport.
For operators, manufacturers and policymakers alike, the message is that adaptability may become more important than forecasting in a world where disruption has become the norm.
