Uncertainty over zero-emission truck resale values took centre stage at the inaugural HGV finance summit in London.

The British Vehicle Rental and Leasing Association (BVRLA) and Green Finance Institute (GFI) jointly organised the event. KPMG hosted it at Canada Square on 1 October.

Operators, lenders, manufacturers and policymakers examined how sharing residual value risk could support investment in cleaner commercial vehicles.

Higher purchase prices already complicate the business case for zero-emission trucks. Uncertainty over future demand and long-term vehicle values adds another hurdle.

For operators, those unknowns can affect the cost and availability of finance. They also make comparisons with established diesel vehicles harder.

The summit combined keynote speeches, panel discussions and structured meetings between organisations that could develop practical financial solutions.

Why residual values matter

Residual value is a truck’s expected worth at the end of its finance agreement or ownership period. That forecast helps shape the economics of leasing and other funding arrangements.

If lenders cannot confidently predict resale proceeds, they face greater exposure. That uncertainty can feed into the terms operators receive.

The HGV finance discussions focused on understanding those risks and deciding how different parties could share them. Delegates also considered where government intervention might help.

BVRLA chief executive Toby Poston said: “Decarbonising road freight is a very different proposition to making the transition with cars or vans.

“The vehicles are expensive, operating requirements are demanding and the investment decisions being made today need to stack up over decades.”

He added: “Residual values are an integral part of that equation. Bringing operators, finance providers, manufacturers and government into the same room is how we can explore different approaches against commercial reality.

“This summit is a key step in creating more constructive conversations about where industry can act and where policy intervention will be needed.”

Lessons from Australia and Germany

International experience formed a central part of the programme.

Richard Lovell, executive director of debt markets at Australia’s Clean Energy Finance Corporation, outlined lessons from the Australian market. He discussed the role public backing can play in addressing uncertainty over future vehicle values.

Sara Schiffer of German rental company Hylane presented its experience of emerging rental and finance models. She also explored considerations for UK operators looking at similar approaches.

The discussion matters because changing the ownership model can change who carries the financial risk. However, moving that risk between parties still requires a commercially workable agreement.

Speakers represented fleet operators, government, lenders, vehicle manufacturers and infrastructure providers. Their involvement reflected the range of organisations needed to turn deployment plans into funded projects.

Turning deployment plans into investment

Ryan Jude, GFI’s executive director of built environment, transport and communities, said HGVs account for 16% of UK domestic transport emissions.

He argued that the transition depends on capital reaching projects at sufficient scale and speed.

“That means turning deployment opportunities into investable propositions that work for operators, financiers and asset owners alike,” he said.

“The next phase of the transition requires coordinated action across the market to address financing barriers, build investor confidence and develop a pipeline of bankable projects.”

The BVRLA represents around 1,000 businesses involved in vehicle rental, leasing and fleet management. Its members operate a combined fleet of 4.6 million vehicles, including one in six trucks on UK roads.

Established in 2019, GFI works with governments and investors to develop financial solutions supporting decarbonisation.

The organisers positioned the HGV finance summit as a step towards solutions that could reach the market in coming years. The release gives no details of a new funding product, residual value guarantee or government support package.

For operators, the next test is how those discussions translate into affordable agreements for zero-emission trucks.

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